With the European club football season in the books the attention of the footballing world now shifts to the Ballon D’or, with the race being as tight as it’s been in years. The weight of winning a continental treble is being put to test against the magnitude of winning the greatest trophy in sports, the FIFA World Cup. With as deep a pool of contenders as there’s been since the so-called “Golden Age” of football in the early-to-mid 2010s, let’s dive in to what the 30-man shortlist might look like, and who will come out on top.

*Disclaimer: these are not a prediction, but rather my own opinion of who deserves to be ranked where. L’Equipe is notoriously inconsistent about sticking to their proclaimed criteria which include individual performances, team trophies, and fair play, which is what this list is based on.

1. Lionel Messi-Inter Miami/Argentina

The 7x Ballon d’or winning punctuated his past season by winning the only trophy he had never been able to over his illustrious career. It’s not as if Messi was the beneficiary of a loaded Argentine side either; while Argentina was better than they have ever been during his tenure for La Albiceleste it was still Messi who put the team on his back when they needed him most, winning awards for Golden Ball and Silver Boot during the World Cup, becoming the first player to score in the group stage and every knockout round of a single World Cup, and becoming the first player to win Man of the Match at every stage of the tournament. He finished off his historic World Cup campaign with a brace in the final, bringing his tournament tally to seven goals to go along with three assists. At club level, he was far from as transformative as he was at Qatar but still ranked among Europe’s leaders in goals+assists, and led Ligue 1 in assists and average match rating. As we’ve seen before (see: 2002 Ronaldo Nazario) the World Cup is almost always a decider for the Ballon D’or every four years, meaning Messi should win it due to his historic run in Qatar coupled with his high-level club performances.

2. Erling Haaland-Manchester City/Norway

The Norwegian striker shattered records his first season in the Premier League, breaking the single-season goals record as well as leading the Champions League in scoring en route to a historic treble. Haaland scored an astonishing 52 goals in all competitions at just 22 years of age, blowing expectations for his first season in England well out of the park. Unfortunately for him, his country could not qualify for the World Cup, and thus he missed a chance to showcase his poaching abilities on the world stage. Additionally, Messi was more consistent on a game-by-game basis as Haaland rarely seemed to affect games in which he couldn’t find the net, something Messi is proficient at. The long-haired striker surely has multiple Ballon d’Ors in his future, but he will likely come up just short this season.

3. Kevin de Bruyne-Manchester City/Belgium

The man behind many of Haaland’s goals, the crafty Belgian turned in yet another incredible season, solidifying his status as the best midfielder in the world. A disappointing World Cup campaign for his country did little to take away from the fact that he was arguably the most impactful player on his club side, as shown when Man City limped to a 1-0 win without him for most of the match in the UCL Final against an Inter side they were expected to blow out of the water by two or three goals. A career-best season proves that De Bruyne is only getting more deadly at 31 years old, and that more Champions Leagues may be in store for City in the near future.

4. Kylian Mbappe-Paris Saint-Germain/France

The man who held the world at his feet. For a brief period of time during the World Cup Final, Mbappe was arguably the most feared man on the planet, scoring two goals in 97 seconds to bring France roaring back in a match they seemed to have no business winning. His every touch seemed fueled by incomprehensible adrenaline, and although France came up just short, his Silver Ball and Golden Boot-winning campaign, not to mention a historic hat-trick in the World Cup final, helped Mbappe earn the respect of millions. Although he failed to maintain that same aggression when he returned to PSG, the 24 year-old Mbappe has shown us that he, perhaps more so than Haaland, is the man to be most feared in football for the next decade and a half.

5. Vinicius Jr.-Real Madrid/Brazil

Although it went largely unnoticed due to disappointing team seasons for both club and country, Vinicius quietly put together the best season of his young career. He finished the season as one of two players with 20 goals and 20 assists in all competitions, with the other being Leo Messi himself. The sky is the limit for the young Brazilian, who has proven himself to be the clear-cut third-best player of the new generation behind Mbappe and Haaland.

6. Rodri-Manchester City/Spain

7. Bernardo Silva-Manchester City/Portugal

8. Robert Lewandowski-FC Barcelona/Poland

9. Victor Osimhen-Napoli/Nigeria

10. Ilkay Gundogan-FC Barcelona/Germany

11. Julian Alvarez-Manchester City/Argentina

12. Harry Kane-Tottenham/England

13. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia-Napoli/Georgia

14. Jack Grealish-Manchester City/England

15. Marcus Rashford-Manchester United/England

16. Luka Modric-Real Madrid/Croatia

17. Bukayo Saka-Arsenal/England

18. Kim Min-Jae-Napoli/South Korea

19. John Stones-Manchester City/England

20. Lautaro Martinez-Inter Milan/Argentina

21. Karim Benzema-Al-Ittihad/France

22. Marc-Andre Ter Stegen-FC Barcelona/Germany

23. Pedri-FC Barcelona/Spain

24. Casemiro-Manchester United/Brazil

25. Mohamed Salah-Liverpool/Egypt

26. Jamal Musiala-FC Bayern Munich/Germany

27. Achraf Hakimi-Paris Saint-Germain/Morocco

28. Ronald Araujo-FC Barcelona/Uruguay

29. Jude Bellingham-Borussia Dortmund/England

30. Emiliano Martinez-Aston Villa/Argentina

Distribution by Club:

Manchester City-7

FC Barcelona-5

Napoli-3

Real Madrid-2

Paris Saint-Germain-2

Manchester United-2

Inter Miami-1

Tottenham-1

Arsenal-1

Inter Milan-1

Al-Ittihad-1

Liverpool-1

FC Bayern Munich-1

Borussia Dortmund-1

Aston Villa-1

Distribution by Nationality:

England-6

Argentina-4

Germany-3

France-2

Brazil-2

Spain-2

Norway-1

Belgium-1

Portugal-1

Poland-1

Nigeria-1

Georgia-1

Croatia-1

South Korea-1

Egypt-1

Morocco-1

Uruguay-1