82 teams entered this years’ FBS season with playoff aspirations, and heading into conference championship weekend, only eight remain with their hopes still intact. For the first time since 2019, all 5 major conferences have a legitimate chance to put a team into the playoff heading into championship weekend, which means every game holds weight in a stacked slate of matchups. Each conference has at least one potential representative in the playoff, but one will inevitably be excluded in what is the final year of the four-team playoff. Each team has a relatively clear path to the playoff, and while some can get in with just a win, some will need more help than that. Each team can be placed into one of three tiers: The Near-Locks, Win and In, and Needs Help. Below, I’ve done my best to sort out maybe the messiest race in the 10 years since the CFP’s institution:

Tier 1-The Near-Locks:

Georgia:

Beat Bama: In

Lose to Bama: Need 2 of the following:

Louisville wins, Iowa wins, Oklahoma State wins

Michigan:

Beat Iowa: In

Lose to Iowa: Georgia wins AND Louisville/Oklahoma State wins

OR

Alabama wins AND Louisville wins AND Oklahoma State wins

Both of these teams not only have the luxury of controlling their playoff destiny, but they can still realistically get in even with a loss. No.1 Georgia rides into their third straight SEC Championship Game having dominated the conference for a third straight season, and could get in despite a loss to Alabama with a few factors to go their way. The only roadblock to them in that scenario is that Alabama would be guaranteed a higher spot than them, so rest assured the Bulldogs will pull no punches in trying to pick up their 30th straight victory since a loss to the Tide in the 2021 SEC Championship Game. Despite a tumultuous season, the path to the playoff for No.2 Michigan is even clearer with a loss, as 10-2 Iowa has no real shot of surpassing the Wolverines in the rankings barring a win of a historic margin. Nevertheless, the Maize and Blue will still be heavily favored to claim a third straight Big Ten championship, one that would clinch maybe the most rewarding playoff berth they’ve had yet.

Tier 2-Win and In

Washington:

Beat Oregon: In

Lose to Oregon: Georgia wins AND 2 of Louisville/Oklahoma State/Iowa win

OR

Alabama wins AND Louisville wins AND Oklahoma State wins AND Iowa wins

Florida State:

Beat Louisville: In unless Michigan, Texas, and Alabama win and FSU wins unconvincingly

Lose to Louisville: Eliminated

Oregon:

Beat Washington: In

Lose to Washington: Eliminated

Technically, Washington could still get in as a one-loss Pac-12 runner-up, but the scenario is so unlikely that it feels that the right position for them is in Tier 2. The winner of the Pac-12 will certainly reach the playoff, a welcome reprieve for the Power 5 conference with the fewest CFP berths. Both Oregon have Washington have put up incredible resumes against maybe the deepest conference in the country, and a win would surely see either in. Florida State will most likely make it in with a win over Louisville to see them to 13-0, although the injury to QB Jordan Travis may influence to committee to select a one-loss team perceived as “better”. Nevertheless, all three in this tier will almost certainly get in with a win, and almost certainly be eliminated with a loss.

Tier 3-Needs Help

Ohio State:

Regular Season over, need

Georgia to win AND Oklahoma State to win AND Louisville to win AND Washington to win

Texas:

Beat Oklahoma State: In unless Georgia and Michigan win and Florida State wins convincingly

Lose to Oklahoma State: Eliminated

Alabama:

Beat Georgia: In unless Michigan and Texas win and Florida State wins convincingly

Lose to Georgia: Eliminated

The three sides in this tier are the only ones who cannot be confident with a win on Championship Saturday. For starters, Ohio State are the only team on this list who don’t play this weekend, having been eliminated from Big Ten contention with a third straight loss to Michigan in The Game. Like last year, they could still make it in if results go that way, but a lot more has to go right in a year with far more contenders. Texas and Alabama present a complex scenario to the committee, as if both were to win, Alabama would have the best win in the country (No.1 Georgia) but Texas boasts the head-to-head win from Week 2 in Tuscaloosa. Texas is also the only team that sits first in their conference that isn’t undefeated, and thus if all favorites win they will likely face the boot on selection day. Both teams will need a fair amount of help to get in even with conference titles.