The matchups are set, and the final year of the four-team College Football Playoff served as strong an example as we’ve ever seen as to why the playoff should be expanded, with No.5 Florida State going undefeated and winning the ACC only to miss out on a playoff spot instead given to one-loss SEC champ Alabama. No undefeated Power 5 champ had ever missed out on the playoff, and only 2018 Ohio State had ever been snubbed as a one-loss champ, and thus the committee made perhaps the most scrutinized decision in their ten years of choosing the semifinalists. The loss of starting QB Jordan Travis against North Alabama caused the committee to question how competitive the Seminoles could be against the other playoff teams, a notion strengthened by sputtering offensive performances against Florida and Louisville in the ACC Championship Game. Nevertheless, the final four is set, and for the first time since 2019 every team remaining is a conference champion, as Big 10 and Pac 12 champions Michigan and Washington enter at a perfect 13-0 while Big 12 and SEC champions Texas and Alabama sport 12-1 records. Here are the predictions:

Rose Bowl:

No.1 Michigan 24-20 No.4 Alabama

The Michigan faithful likely hoped for a limping Florida State side to snag the fourth and final playoff spot, as white-hot Alabama enters the Rose Bowl as maybe the most in-form team in the country. Back-to-back 27-24 thrillers over rivals Auburn and No.1 Georgia saw the Crimson Tide complete an improbable turnaround from a team many left for dead after a home loss to Texas coupled with struggling wins over USF and Arkansas. The last time these teams met, No.13 Alabama turned a 16-14 halftime deficit into a 35-16 win over No.14 Michigan in the 2019 Citrus Bowl, but despite all that, this time the Wolverines enter the Rose Bowl as the hunter and not the hunted. The No.1 team in the country enters the playoff just as it did the last two seasons: behind a bruising brand of Big 10 trench-focused football, and big wins over Ohio State and the Big 10 West champs en route to a threepeat of Big 10 titles. However, they have yet to get over the first-round hump, losing each of their past two semifinal games to third-ranked Georgia and TCU respectively. This time, as the No.1 team in the country, they will again be tested by the explosive Alabama offensive and skilled defense, but their overall talent on both sides should finally see them through to the national title game. It’s hard to envision Alabama winning the battle in the trenches, so expect RB Blake Corum to have a big game and for the secondary to do just enough to keep QB Jalen Milroe and his playmakers at bay in order to pick up a tight victory.

Sugar Bowl:

No.2 Washington 49-38 No.3 Texas

In contrast to the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl shapes up to be an explosive aerial battle, headlined by a matchup of two of the most talented QBs in the nation. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is coming off an elite season that saw him pick up the Maxwell Award as well as a runner-up finish in the Heisman Trophy voting and his Huskies set a program record for wins this season with 13, including wins over No.14 Arizona, No.19 Oregon State, and No.8 Oregon twice. Their schedule warranted a case for the No.1 ranking at the end of the season, given the depth of the treacherous Pac-12. Meanwhile, Texas is coming off a 12-1 season and its first Big 12 title since 2009. Signal-caller Quinn Ewers set Big 12 Championship Game records for passing yards and touchdowns in a 49-21 rout of Oklahoma State to send the Longhorns to their first CFP appearance, and Texas’ arsenal of offensive weapons is one of the few in the country that can compete with that of Washington. That said, Washington’s firepower, specifically the duo of Penix Jr. and receiver Rome Odunze, should prove the difference in outlasting the Longhorns.