With a little over two weeks to go in the NFL season, a good portion of the league appears set on who their starting quarterback will be for 2024. It feels like more teams than ever are set on who their franchise QB is, and even more have an idea as to who they hope to commit to in the long-term. When making this tier list, I was surprised as to how few current starters project to have a starting job somewhere else next year, with only three teams projecting to start a quarterback not currently on their roster.

Tier 1: The Franchise QBs

Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes

Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts

Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen

San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson

Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott

Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa

Detroit Lions: Jared Goff

Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence

Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert

Denver Broncos: Russell Wilson

Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford

New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers

These teams are without a doubt set for 2024 and beyond; these QBs are the cream of the crop and will start as long as they’re in town. The only question marks here are Stafford and Rodgers, who will both start as long as they are there, but who both may retire either this offseason or the next.

Tier 2: Rookie Contract Projects

Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love

Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson

Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young

Tennesee Titans: Will Levis

Love has proven himself as a capable starter this season, and likely views next season as an attempt to increase the value of his extension. The other three are all 2023 draft products who have yet to play enough to be considered a hit or a miss, and thus the jury is out on all three until further notice.

Tier 3: Prove-It Year

Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray

Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield

Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith

Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett

New York Giants: Daniel Jones

Washington Commanders: Sam Howell

The QBs in this tier have all proven their talent at some point or another, but 2024 will decide whether or not they stay for the long haul. With Mayfield, Smith, Pickett, Jones, and Howell, consistency is the issue, whereas health is a concern for Murray and Cousins. The latter two especially have proven to be Pro Bowl-caliber, but Murray’s record of missed games as of late as well as Cousins’ Achilles injury this season have put their futures in question.

Tier 4: Transition QBs

Las Vegas Raiders: Jimmy Garoppolo

New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr

These two will likely start next season, but no further. Both have not inspired confidence this season, but the relative competitiveness of their teams means they’ll likely miss out on a top QB in the draft. These teams may look to draft a lower-tier QB such as Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. and sit them for a year to develop under veteran QBs.

Tier 5: 2024 Draft Class

Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams

New England Patriots: Drake Maye

Atlanta Falcons: Jayden Daniels

These teams have all indicated a willingness to move on from their current signal-caller, and will likely seek out one of these three potentially game-changing QBs in the draft. The Bears are the biggest question mark, but given their previous statements, its hard to imagine them sticking with Justin Fields when Caleb Williams is available.

Tier 6: Paid $230 million and are now trapped until 2026

Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson

The Browns are lucky their defense is so good because this offense may remain lethargic for the foreseeable future.